Blind Time

[Transcriber's Note: This etext was produced from Astounding Science-Fiction, September 1946. Extensive research did not uncover any evidence that the U.S. copyright on this publication was renewed.]

The man behind the large, polished desk nodded as Peter Wright entered. "Wright," he said, "the Oak Tool Works will require an adjuster. You're new in this office, but I've been given to understand that you have experience, are willing, intelligent, and observing. The Oak Tool Works has a special contract, and it is always taken care of by Mr. Delinge who happens to be having a vacation in an unaccessible spot. Therefore, you will pinch-hit for him."

"I understand."

The president of Interplanetary Industrial Insurance nodded.

"Good," he said. "You are to be at their Charles Street plant at eight o'clock tonight. They are to have an accident then."

Peter Wright nodded. He turned to go, his head mulling over the myriad of questions used by the average insurance adjuster. The questions designed to uncover any possible fraud. Those designed to place the full blame of the mishap, to ascertain whether it were covered by the existing contract, to determine the exact and precise time of the accident--

"What?" he yelled, turning back to the executive.

The president of I.I.I. nodded wearily.

"I heard you right?" asked Peter incredulously.

Edwin Porter nodded.

"But look, sir. An accident, by definition, is an unforeseen incident, which by common usage has come to be accepted as misfortunate, although the term 'accident' may correctly be applied to--"

"Wright, after you have been to the Oak Tool Works, you will become violently anti-semantic."

"But look, sir. If this accident is forecast with certainty, why can't it be averted?"

"Because it has happened already."

"But you said eight o'clock."

"I did," said Porter. "And I mean it."

"But ... but it is now about three-thirty in the afternoon. At eight o'clock this evening there is to be an accident that has happened already. The Oak Tool Works is in this same time-zone; they're running on Central Standard Time, too. So far as I know, the Oak Tool Works is not manufacturing time machines, are they?"

Porter grinned despite his weariness. "No, Oak, is not manufacturing time machines."

"I am still in gross ignorance. If anybody is capable of truly predicting the future on the basis of ten percent accuracy, he'd put the insurance companies out of business--unless they hired him."

"The future, in some senses, can be predicted," said Porter.

"Only on a statistical basis," answered Wright. "The prediction that tomorrow will arrive at precisely such and such an instant is a prediction based upon the statistical experience gained by several thousand years. So is the prediction of what will happen when sulphuric acid and potassium nitrate are mixed. But an accident, sir, is unpredictable by definition. Therefore he who can predict an accident is a true prognosticator who needs no statistical experience to bolster up his forecasting."

"Wright, this argument gets nowhere. It, incidentally, is why Delinge always handled the Oak contract. He knew, and there was never an argument. No, I'll tell you no more, Wright. You'll be incredulous anyway until you've seen it in person. Eventually, you'll understand."

"I doubt it," replied Peter. "Seems to me that there are a couple of very obvious factors. One, if an accident can be predicted, it can also be avoided. Two, if such an accident is foreseen and nothing is done about trying to avert it, then it is a matter of gross negligence and the contract may be voided on those grounds."

"With but one exception to your statements, I agree," said Porter. "The accident that will take place at eight o'clock has already happened."

"What you really mean is," said Peter Wright, more by way of question than by statement, "is that the accident has occurred but will not become evident until eight?"

"I'd hate to try to explain it in a few words. Let us try by analogy. A man atop of the mountain sees an avalanche start toward a railroad track. The avalanche takes out the track, preventing a meeting between two emissaries on a vital question. The vital question is not settled, and two countries go to war. In the war, one country discovers a means of nullifying gravity, which after the war is used to start interplanetary travel. Several years after interplanetary travel starts, the rare metals are discovered in plenty and the cost of shipping is such that the monetary system fails and the system enters a trying period of depression. Now, could you, a man suffering because of the depression, go back and turn aside the avalanche?"

"No, but I fail to see the connection."

"There isn't any, really. In that case the depression was due to a concatenation of events. In the case at the Oak Tool Works, the accident per se has already happened, but it will happen at eight o'clock. You, Peter Wright, will witness the accident that will happen and make a suitable settlement."

"Let's hire the prognosticator," suggested Wright.

"The laboratory is working full time on a means of utilizing the principle in our business. To date they are not successful. For me, I hope they are never successful. I'll stick to the statistical experience, since true prognostication depends upon some sort of pre-destination, which if true makes a mockery of all effort."

"All right," grumbled Peter Wright. "I'm going. What sort of accident is ... will it be?"

"Go prepared for anything from simple abrasion to loss of limb. I doubt the possibility of death, but--"

"I give up," groaned Wright.

"Where's Delinge?" asked the man at the Oak Tool Works.

"Vacationing on Mars, I believe."

"No offense, young man. I'd prefer him only because he has experience in this. I'll have to spend some time in explaining to you, as a newcomer, just what really goes on."

"What I'd like to know," said Wright, "is some means of averting these predictable accidents."

"We've tried. We've also failed."

"Look, Mr. Simpkins, I'm of the legal profession. I am not too much of a scientist, and I know about nothing regarding machinery--let alone the kind of plant that makes tools that make tools. I took a course in mech, of course, and forgot it as soon as I made my grade."

"Do you know what a blind rivet is?"